Projections refers to demographic variables that are forecast beyond current year estimates. Projections in this product consist of:
- Five-year (5Y), 10-year (10Y), 15-year (15Y), and 20-year (20Y) primary projections
- Single-year projections in between the 5Y, 10Y, 15Y, and 20Y primary projections
- Variables for 5Y projections including total population, population by age and sex, households, and household reference persons by age
- Demographic variables for all other projection years, covering total population and population by broad age groups and sex
A full list of Projections variables is found in the estimates_projections_aus_data_schema_xlsx workbook.
Note: The Projections database makes use of state-level cohort models (refer to the Methodology section of this product guide for additional information). Results should be interpreted as forecasts whose accuracy is dependent on the continuation of current trends and assumptions. These state projections use the latest available Estimated Resident Population (ERP) at the state level, combined with mortality and fertility rates, and net overseas and internal migration data from the ABS. The state-level cohort model is also informed by selected components of population change presented by the Centre for Population.
Note: The likelihood of a projection's divergence from underlying assumptions increases as the timeframe of that projection increases.
Note: Because smaller geographic units place increasing burdens on assumptions, projections for larger aggregations of small units may be expected to generate higher confidence.